NFL Handicapping: Bills and Dolphins play third game in 12 days | |
| Miami at Buffalo -2 O/U 45 Thursday night marks the first time since 2008 the Buffalo Bills will host a primetime game. They unfortunately aren't that giddy about it considering it will mark the team's third contest in 12 days. Miami is in the same boat and doesn't have a strong track record of success playing in cold weather (it is expected to be in the mid-30s). However, last season, with gametime temps of 30 degrees and snow, the Dolphins waltzed into Ralph Wilson Stadium and came away with a 30-23 victory as 1-point chalk. "I don't like it," Bills coach Chan Gailey said. "I think it's tough on the players. We have quite a few players that sometimes don't get back on the practice field until Thursday. So I think this is a tough turnaround for a football team and for the players in general. "I'm not a big fan. But it's here, and that's what it is, and you deal with it." ?Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins | |
NBA Handicapping: Minnesota down to nine players vs. Charlotte | |
| Charlotte at Minnesota -7 O/U 183 Due to injuries, the Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to have only nine active players for tonight's game against Charlotte. The T-Wolves opened -8.5 but have been bet down to -7. The total was also hit down from 187 to as low as 182.5. "They tell me who's going to play, and you coach those people," Adelman said after the Wolves' shootaround practice Wednesday. "I hope we get some guys back on Friday, but I don't want to anticipate that. I might get disappointed." Tags: NBA Minnesota Timberwolves Charlotte Bobcats | |
College hoops head coach wishes he could have cashed in on longshot futures bet | |
| Great quote by St. Bonaventure head coach Mark Schmidt on the unlikelihood of his squad and the women's team making last year's Big Dance. The Bonnies are -3.5/-4 point favorites tonight at Cornell. If only someone had the foresight to have laid a bet on both teams winding up in the tournament, a first at St. Bonaventure. ?If we put a $1,000 on that, then we wouldn?t have budget problems,? Schmidt said, chuckling. ?That line was probably a million to one.? Try a billion to one, Crowley said, before adding: ?It was quite a story.? ?Tags: College Basketball. St. Bonaventure Bonnies | |
NFL Betting News and Notes Week 10 | |
| Submitted by ICCThe New England Patriots may need to be put on ?automatic fade? watch laying double-digits at this point. They once again came up short as big chalk against Buffalo in a 37-31 win laying -13.5 points. That makes New England 0-3 ATS in that role this season including an outright loss to Arizona. The Patriots just aren?t playing anything close to the level of championship caliber defense right now to be trusted laying double-digits. The Pats run defense allowed over 100 yards to the Bills and the secondary was picked apart by Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw for 337 passing yards. Defensive stats like that won?t cash many tickets in that kind of price range. The Philadelphia Eagles downward spiral continued on Sunday. They are a dead team walking right now. The body language is awful. Head coach Andy Reid is firmly on the hot seat. The offensive line can't protect anyone from teeing off on ailing quarterback Michael Vick. The run game has been non-existent. The defense has been a sieve in recent weeks giving up big plays against both the pass and the run. They?ve been guilty of taking numerous defensive holding, illegal contact and PI penalties setting up opposing offenses in great field position. There isn't a single redeeming quality about the Eagles right now and Vick is out at least for this week meaning that Nick Foles will make his first start of the season at Washington who comes in off of a bye. How bad has it been for Philly? Well not only are they just 3-6 SU this season but those three against Cleveland, Baltimore and the NY Giants came by a combined four points! The Eagles are that close from being a winless team and in line for the #1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft! When you?re hot, you?re hot! Denver certainly fits that bill right now. After an up and down start to their season, the Broncos have gone on a torrid 5-1 SU and ATS roll dating back to the end of September. Amazingly they crushed the pointspread by a combined 72 points in those five wins! Denver is quickly becoming one of the most popular teams for the public to bet on and that likely won?t stop until they lose or fail to cover. The Broncos are flexing their recent dominance with an offense that is in terrific form. Peyton Manning looks like his vintage self and has quickly developed chemistry with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and the rest of the Denver receiving corps and is complemented by a strong rushing attack with Willis McGahee. The defense continues to play solid in the secondary and get pressure on opposing quarterbacks up front with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil leading the charge. The betting markets haven?t adjusted enough to Denver?s current hot streak. Not yet at least. Denver is listed as 8.5-point home favorites against San Diego. Has the line finally caught up with Denver? We?ll find out on Sunday. Tags: NFL New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles Denver Broncos Ian Cameron | |
College Basketball Betting Free Play: Santa Clara Broncos at Saint Louis Billikens | |
| Santa Clara at Saint Louis -11.5 ? Recommendation: Saint Louis Saint Louis somehow comes into the season unranked and under-the-radar, very good news for us in early season play.? This team won 26 games last year and reached the Sweet 16.? They return the core from that squad ? even with star point guard Kwamain Mitchell out with a foot injury they still return three starters and several key bench contributors from last year?s team. The Billikens are a good offensive team.? They are a great defensive team, fighting on every possession.? That?s their recipe for covering double digit pointspreads, and they?ve done it with consistency, notching doubl-digit wins against Tennessee State, Southern Illinois, Washington, Boston College, Villanova, Oklahoma, Portland, Vermont, Illinois-Springfield, Alabama State and Arkansas State all before Christmas last year.? I?m expecting similar non-conference results in 2012 from a team that has the capacity to blow out opponents even when they score in the 60?s! Santa Clara certainly isn?t going to be any worse than last year?s 8-22 team that went 0-16 in West Coast Conference play.? They return every key contributor from that squad, including injured low post stud Marc Trasolini coming off an ACL tear last September and star guard Kevin Foster who was suspended following his arrest in January.? They?ll be competitive in the WCC this year, but this is a major step up in class on the road for a team still finding their way.? The betting markets love the ?all starters returning? angle for this Broncos team, betting this spread down earlier today; giving us a relatively cheap price to lay with the superior squad tonight!? Tags: College Basketball Saint Louis Billikens Santa Clara Broncos Teddy Covers | |
Sports Betting Podcast 11-14-2012 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning | |
| Tags: College Basketball College Football NBA Ian Cameron Erin Rynning | |
NFL Gambling Notes: Four back-up QBs could start Week 11 | |
| Back-up quarterbacks abound for Week 11. Let's take a look at the quarterback situations for these teams. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger has been rules out and Byron Leftwich will start in his place. Baltimore has been bet up to a 3-point road favorite and could be headed to -3.5. San Francisco - Alex Smith is questionable with concussion-like symptoms. If he can't go, Colin Kaepernick would get the start. No line on Monday Night's game vs. Chicago. Chicago - Jay Cutler is also dealing a concussion and according to Sports Options is doubtful. Jason Campbell is expected to start. Philadelphia - Michael Vick is listed as doubtful with rookie Nick Foles listed as the probable starter. Washington is holding as a 3.5-point home favorite.? Tags: NFL Chicago Bears San Francisco 49ers Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers | |
NBA Betting News: Chicago Bulls play five road games in 10 days | |
| Chicago -3 at Phoenix O/U 188 The Chicago Bulls embark on their annual "circus trip" starting tonight in Phoenix. Over the next 10 days, they will play five straight road games. The Bulls are hoping to get back Kirk Hinrich who is currently listed as questionable with a hip injury. There was no "circus trip" last year due to the lockout. The year before that, the Bulls went 4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS.? Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Phoenix Suns | |
NBA Handicapping: Washington Wizards remain an absolute mess | |
| Washington at Dallas O/U 192 Making fun of the Washington Wizards never gets old. For whatever reason, this year's group has decided that three-pointers are the key to victory. Unfortunately, they are shooting 27.9%. AJ Price is hoisting 6.8 threes per game (26.8%) while rookie Bradley Beal, who leads the team in scoring at 12.2 ppg, is averaging 4.5 attempts per game (33.3%). The Wizards are 0-6 SU but somehow 3-3 ATS in part because opposing teams have a difficult time taking them seriously. ?When you struggle offensively like that, there are reasons for that,? Coach Randy Wittman said after the Wizards opened the season 0-6 for the second year in a row. ?I thought the first quarter was one of our better quarters. We moved the ball fast. Very little holding of the ball. Very little searching for shots. Second quarter, it just all became a search. Hold the ball. Dribble, dribble, dribble, until I exhaust my opportunity to shoot the ball, which leads to turnovers or awful shots.? ?Tags: NBA Washington Wizards Dallas Mavericks | |
College Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin takes on Florida | |
| Wisconsin at Florida -6.5 O/U 122.5 Good early season matchup with Wisconsin traveling to Gainesville to take on Florida. The Gators have a few injury concerns, with practice consisting of eight scholarship players and two walk-ons. Florida has hinted it wants to play at a faster pace this season. During last year's non-conference, Florida had nine games with 70 possessions or more. But during SEC play, they averaged only 62.4. Tough to get much in the way of tempo against Wisconsin. In four non-conference games last year against BYU, North Carolina, Marquette and UNLV, the average game score was 118.5 (61.5 possessions). "We're going to find out more about who we are, and where we've got to get better and where we have to improve," Donovan said. ? "We've had to battle things early here in the year. There's been some things that have thrown some wrinkles for us right before the season started of being able to make adjustments. So I think this is a game that gives us a chance to see what kind of adjustments we need to make as a team and where we need to get better." "They can bring some heat, especially at home," Ryan said. "They've turned a lot of teams over many times, and I'm sure they're planning on doing the same with us, and we just have to not fall into the traps very often. Make sure we're reading the traps before they come, retreat dribbles, not one-dribble pickups, not ? there's a list of about 20 things that, in my mind, you go over about half court, where to catch a ball in relationship to half court, how close to the sideline. You got the 10-second clock on. If you think about it too much, you start to sweat. You get nervous. But it's all read and react." Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Florida Gators | |
NFL Gambling Alert: Roethlisberger out, Baltimore bet up to -3 | |
| Baltimore -3 at Pittsburgh O/U 41 According to FOX Sports' Jay Glazer, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, rib) will not play Sunday against Baltimore. Byron Leftwich is expected to start in his place. Over the last 12 hours bettors took out nearly all of the 2.5's with the Ravens now 3-point favorites. The total was also hammered down from and opener of 45.5 to 41/41.5. Roethlisberger isn't the only Pittsburgh player with injury concerns. Antonio Brown, Marcus Gilbert, Troy Polamalu and Rashard Mendenhall are all questionable.? Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens | |
NFL Handicapping: Offensive line rankings | |
| Here are Profootballfocus.com's Week 10 offensive line rankings. It is in way an exact science trying to rank o-line units but this deep into the season, it is fairly established who is strong and who is not. Not surprising, the bottom of the list is littered with bad teams and losing spread records save for St. Louis' 6-3 ATS mark. The top of the list though is a bit more intriguing. The 49ers rank No. 1 but joining them in the top five are again, some bad football teams (and spread records) most notably the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course when your turnover margin per game is -2.2, no amount of pass protection or run blocking can save you. 32. Arizona (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)? 5. Cincinnati (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)? | |
WSOP champ wears Orioles jersey laced with poker sponsers | |
| We've kidded multiple times that it would be awesome to see Kobe Bryant donning a 5Dimes logo on his jersey or a Cubs broadcast sponsored by William Hill. Probably not going to happen in our lifetime but it?s pretty cool that the Baltimore Orioles didn't see a problem with recent World Series of Poker winner and Maryland native Greg Merson sporting poker logos on his O's game jersey. "Greg wearing an Orioles jersey was something we got a kick out of seeing, and we congratulate him on his win," wrote Greg Bader, recently promoted to vice president of communication and marketing. "I know many of us with the ballclub enjoyed seeing the Orioles colors displayed during the tournament. At no time were any concerns expressed about the advertisements on his jersey." ?Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Poker | |
College Basketball Handicapping: Calipari says UK focused on defense and rebounding | |
| Kentucky vs. Duke -3.5 O/U 140 According to Kentucky head coach John Calipari, not much preparation went into tonight's game in terms of offense or the opponent. He was particularly concerned about rebounding. The Wildcats were outdone on the glass by the Terps 46-34. Half of Maryland's rebounds were offensive. "One way to break habits is to do it over and over and over and over," Calipari said. "But you can't do 55 things a day over and over and over. If you shift to rebounding, something else has to give a little bit." "We didn't do anything offensively for two days, really," Calipari said. "That may hurt us now." ?Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Duke Blue Devils | |
Sports Betting Podcast 11-13-2012 with Handicapper Brent Crow | |
| Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow | |
College Basketball Betting: USC steamed up to -8 vs. Long Beach State | |
| Long Beach State at USC -8 Major line moves aren't uncommon during the first few weeks of the college basketball season. Take today's Long Beach State-USC matchup for example. CRIS opened the game as a pick 'em (Pinnacle -5.5) with the Trojans now as high as -8. Based on most preseason literature, USC is not only healthy (a major issue last season) but significantly more talented than last year's group that went 6-26. Long Beach meanwhile was forced to completely reload after losing four 1,000-point career scorers. On paper, USC deserves to be favored but you always have to be concerned when asking a Kevin O'Neill coached squad to win by margin.
? Tags: College Basketball USC Trojans Long Beach State 49ers | |
College Football Gambling Preview: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks | |
| Submitted by Andrew LangeStanford at Oregon? Andrew Lange?s Recommendation: Oregon? Saturday, 5 pm PT ? ABC? CRIS Opener: Oregon -21.5 O/U 65? CRIS Current: Oregon -20.5 O/U 64.5? Rob Veno?s Power Rating: Oregon -22 A few weeks back I marked down in my notes to play against Stanford when they face up-tempo offenses. I did this on the heels of their overtime win over Arizona. In that game, the Cardinal were absolutely gashed defensively as the Wildcats rolled up 617 yards. Stanford was completely gassed in the second half as the Wildcats did whatever they wanted offensively. Since that time, Stanford has faced nothing but sub-par and/or pro-style offenses ? the exact profile that their defense has historically thrived against. ? So here we are this weekend with Stanford traveling to face an Oregon squad that like Arizona runs a crazy-fast, up-tempo offense. The difference is not only are the Ducks stronger offensively than the Wildcats, they are also significantly better defensively. While Arizona allows 0.444 points per play (91st nationally), Oregon checks in at 26th at 0.293. Back to Stanford's struggles against up-tempo offenses. In last year's bowl game against Oklahoma State, the Cardinal allowed 7.2 yards per play and 41 points. Their saving grace was Andrew Luck's 27-of-31, 347 yard performance. During the regular season, and undefeated at the time, Stanford played host to the Ducks and were destroyed 53-30. The Ducks had only 387 yards but forced five Stanford turnovers which resulted in two touchdown drives of 20 yards or less. The year before that, more of the same as Oregon racked up 626 total yards in a 52-31 win. Keep in mind, those performances were with Luck at quarterback, not back-up Kevin Hogan who will be making his first career road start. Stanford will come ready to play and may be able to stick around for a while, but I can't help but go back to that Arizona game when the Cardinal defense looked slow and helpless. Expect that to be exposed once again on Saturday. Tags: College Football Stanford Cardinal Oregon Ducks PAC-12 Andrew Lange | |
College Basketball Betting Free Play: Florida Atlantic Owls at Mississippi State Bulldogs | |
| Submitted by Teddy CoversFlorida Atlantic +6 at Mississippi State ? Recommendation: Florida Atlantic Mississippi State is a complete mess coming into the season.? The Bulldogs are projected to rank at the very bottom of a mediocre SEC conference.? It?s easy to understand why.? Mississippi State lost all five starters from last year?s 21-win team, and the roster has been completely depleted by transfers following the departure of long time head coach Rick Stansbury.? That leaves first-year, first-time head coach Rick Ray in complete rebuilding mode early in the season; a dead nuts bet against squad. Florida Atlantic shot a woeful 28% from the floor in their season opener at North Carolina.? They missed free throws, committed 17 turnovers compared to only 11 assists and were outrebounded by 20 in the game.? They STILL came within a bucket of covering the pointspread.? Mike Jarvis?s squad made good money in this non-conference road dog role early in the season last year, with ATS covers against Washington, Georgia State, Hofstra, Miami (FL), and yes, right here in Starkville against the Bulldogs.? Expect more of the same in 2012.? Tags: College Basketball Florida Atlantic Owls Mississippi State Bulldogs Teddy Covers | |
NBA Handicapping: Timberwolves making money for bettors thanks to improved defense | |
| Small sample but the Minnesota Timberwolves appear much improved defensively this season. They've held four of seven opponents to 87 points or less and as a result are off to a 6-1 ATS start. They play host to Charlotte on Wednesday. Tags: NBA Minnesota Timberwolves | |
Handicapper Alf Musketa's NFL and NCAAF Line Moves Report 11/13/2012 | |
| Submitted by Alf MusketaTemple at Army? Army opened -1.5 now -3? Anti-Temple bettors are going to the window one more time and who can blame them. Temple has lost its last four games straight up and against the spread. In fact they haven't even been in a ball game for quite some time. It seems that the offensive line has problems with protection, they have a two-headed quarterback monster rotation, and running back Montel Harris has failed to produce. Harris was knocked out of their last game versus Cincinnati but is listed as probable for this game. Army is no bargain either with its 85th ranked defense.? ?? BYU at San Jose State? BYU opened -6, now -3.5 ? Whether you like BYU as a team, their power rating, defense, or simply for the fact that the average age on their roster is older than any team in college football, you should not back them here because they have already accepted a bowl bid. BYU will play in the Poinsettia Bowl in beautiful San Diego, California. This team travels well, huge family/fans support and one would have to think a there are plenty of preparations going on rather than worrying about quarterback David Fales and the Spartans. San Jose State is 11-2 against the spread in its last 13 contests. I agree with the move.? ?? Ohio State at Wisconsin? Wisconsin opened -1.5, now -3 ? I doubt too many market players are moving this number. There are many handicappers and bettors that believe that you should throw out Wisconsin?s first few games of the season and look at what they've done lately; 4-1 SU run, 5-1 ATS run. Running back Monte Ball has 11 touchdowns in his last six games and after a freak injury to start the season is rolling along nicely. Wisconsin has locked up a spot in the Big Ten title game and may be looking ahead. Ohio State is undefeated but cannot go to a bowl game. I do not see this number getting past a field goal, therefore if you prefer OSU bet them now.? ?? San Diego at Denver? Denver opened -7, now -8.5 +110 ? The -8.5 is not officially a teaser number but rather a deterrent from those who like to buy points. If you shop you may be able to move/buy a half point for -110 and another half point for -120, but at -8.5 most sportsbooks will make you pay heavily to get that line back to -7 or not give you the option to buy 1.5 points at all.? ?? Denver and Peyton Manning are hot and even though this game is a huge divisional revenge game for the Chargers after that MNF disaster (24-0 lead at halftime lead, 35-24 loss) no one is lining up to bet on Norv Turner, Philip Rivers and the Chargers anytime soon. Market players are betting the Broncos right out of the gate.Tags: College Football NFL Alf Musketa | |
College Football Gambling: Oregon State QB situation remains unknown | |
| California at Oregon State Oregon State head coach Mike Riley has yet to commit to a quarterback for Saturday's matchup against Cal. Cody Vaz sprained his ankle in last week's loss to Stanford and according to Sports Options is doubtful. And Sean Mannion is still not fully healed from mid-season knee surgery. As for Cal, Zach Maynard, who missed last week, remains doubtful. His back-up, Allan Bridgford, colpmeted 9-of-21 passes for 113 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in last week's 59-17 loss to Oregon. The Golden Bears appear to be in towel-tossing mode failing to win or cover each of their last four games.? Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers California Golden Bears PAC-12 | |
College Basketball Betting Free Play: Harvard Crimson at UMass Minutemen | |
| Submitted by Andrew LangeHarvard at UMass -10 O/U 138? Recommendation: UMass Because of graduation on transfers, Harvard is very different than last year's 26-win squad that reached the NCAA Tournament. The Crimson lost two seniors and two juniors that all played 25 minutes per game or more. Kyle Casey and Keith Wright were double-digit scorers who shot better than 51% from the floor. Brandyn Curry and Oliver McNally combined for 253 assists, 74 steals and over 15 ppg. Now Tommy Amaker is asking new guys (some of which freshmen) to go on the road and face the intense full court pressure of UMass. Noteworthy that Harvard committed four turnovers on its first four possessions last Friday against...MIT. UMass has made strides under Derek Kellogg, jumping from 15 wins to 25 last year. They return their core nucleus and have considerably more depth than last year. I expect the Minutemen to force a ton of turnovers against the Crimson which should lead to easy points and a double-digit win. Tags: College Basketball Harvard Crimson UMass Minutemen Andrew Lange | |
Monday Night Football Betting Odds: Few if any willing to support Kansas City | |
| Kansas City at Pittsburgh -12.5 O/U 40 According to Bookmaker, over 80% of side bets have come in on the Pittsburgh Steelers for tonight's Monday Night Football contest against Kansas City. The Chiefs are so bad some bettors aren't even shy about laying the -570 on the moneyline. Note that tonight's weather could be a factor: CLOUDY, 80% CHANCE RAIN EARLY. WEST WIND 12-22, GUSTY. KICKOFF TEMP 49 TEMPERATURE DROPS TO UPPER 30S LATE.
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?Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders and Pretenders | |
| Submitted by Teddy CoversNovember is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. Last week, I focused on the NFC; this week, I?ll turn to the AFC. Unfortunately, the Colts and Steelers didn?t play on Sunday, and the Texans? Sunday Night game was played in weather conditions that affected the game (and the game plan) significantly. Who among the rest can challenge for AFC supremacy? Read on to find out. Denver Broncos - Another slow start for a West Coast team traveling East; certainly not unusual. Slow starts have been a consistent problem for Denver all year. We saw them fall behind by three scores when they faced Atlanta, Houston and San Diego ? three of the tougher foes they've faced. But slow starts are about the only fault I can find with this team right now. We already know how good Denver?s offense can be, and they score touchdowns : 22 TDs in 32 red zone possessions. The Broncos have an elite quarterback, a strong running game and playmaking WR's - they can trade points with anybody. This team's postseason future rests on the strength (or weakness) of their stop unit; a unit that has stepped up at times and gotten torched many other times. What does this defense do well? First, they make in-game adjustments. I?m very impressed with this coaching staff, as Manning was when he decided to play for Denver. This pass rush is getting to the quarterback ? Von Miller was an absolute beast in this ballgame, but he was one of six different defenders to pull Cam Newton to the turf. This secondary is turning bad throws into interceptions. The linebacking corps is stuffing the run. If the D continues to play like this, I?d make Denver the favorite to reach the Super Bowl. San Diego Chargers ? I felt completely schizophrenic writing about Chargers QB Philip Rivers, a mystifying presence on the field these days. Rivers was brilliant in this ballgame, leading the team on three 80-yard touchdown drives before halftime. After going 18-of-20 passing against the Chiefs last Thursday, Rivers only threw two incomplete passes before halftime here, demonstrating truly impressive accuracy.? Yet for every good thing I wrote about Rivers, there was the flip side of the coin ? when Rivers makes mistakes, he makes huge mistakes, like his careless pick six that was the difference in the ballgame. Brilliance alternating with incompetence is no recipe for winning a Super Bowl. The Chargers defense dominated a good portion of this game. But once again, the running game sputtered ? Ryan Matthews hasn't exactly filled LT's shoes. And perhaps most of all, Norv Turner's lack of attention to special teams has been a problem for this organization since he's been here. Another bad miscue ? this time a blocked punt returned for a touchdown ? turned the momentum of this game. When that was followed by Rivers pick six, it was lights out for San Diego today? and probably for their season as well. Miami Dolphins - Last week, this pass defense was torched by Andrew Luck. I'm impressed with the week-to-week adjustments from the coaching staff. We saw more blitzing today, effective blitzing that wreaked havoc in the Titans backfield, dramatically improving the performance in the secondary. In the red zone, this defense has stiffened all year, swarming to the football and making both yards and points very difficult to come by. However, Miami?s defense was not effective in the red zone today, giving up fairly easy TDs on each of the Titans first two possessions. This offense is a long way from being playoff caliber on a weekly basis. Ryan Tannehill has had some great games this year, but he's had some real clunkers too. One thing is for certain ? if this team can?t run, they can't win. Trailing by three TD's early certainly takes the running game largely out of the equation ? Miami is not a 'rally back from way behind' type team like Detroit or Denver. The weakness of this receiving corps was on full display today ? Tannehill didn?t complete a pass longer than 17 yards all afternoon. This offense sure could use a deep threat playmaker ? you know, like Brandon Marshall who they dumped this past offseason. New England Patriots - This offense is pretty close to being unstoppable when the opposing defense can't create a pass rush ? Tom Brady, with time, is as accurate as it gets. I still don't love this receiving corps without both Hernandez and Gronkowski available ? when an aging Deion Branch is a go-to guy, it speaks volumes about the lack of size on the outside. But frankly, that's just nitpicking ? this is an elite level offense just as it has been for the better part of the last decade, particularly when they've got Stephen Ridley and the running game working too. That's a big part of the reason why the Pats have been relatively good as chalk in every recent season -- weaker defenses have no chance to shut them down. This stat probably sums it up best ? New England?s offense has only eight 'three and out's' all year (only one today), by far the best in the NFL. But the Pats postseason success is going to rest on the shoulders of their defense; an inconsistent unit once again this year. They were certainly not at their best today ? Belichick was so disgusted he made the rare move of not being aggressive in the final minute before halftime; willing to let the clock run out without a single downfield throw. This defensive line got abused today, completely unable to control the line of scrimmage. I?ll give them credit for forcing a pair of red zone turnovers with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. But when this offense scores 37 against a team like Buffalo, they shouldn?t be desperately trying to hang on for the win in the closing seconds. Baltimore Ravens - This offense has a completely different level of execution at home compared to when they play on the road; just like last year. There's a reason Baltimore has won 15 straight and 20 of their last 21 home games; 33-5 SU at home in the five years of John Harbaugh?s tenure. QB Joe Flacco simply has a very different comfort level on this field. I'd expect that from a rookie or a second year player; not from a veteran like Flacco. The results don't lie ? look at these point totals: 44, 31, 23, 31 and 55 at home this year, compared to 23, 9, 13 and 25 in their four road games. If this team is going to go to the Super Bowl, they?ll need as many home playoff games as they can get after playing a whopping eight road playoff games compared to only one home playoff game over the past four seasons.? Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers Tags: NFL New England Patriots San Diego Chargers Baltimore Ravens Denver Broncos Miami Dolphins Teddy Covers | |
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