NEW YORK (AP) ? The producers of "Live! With Kelly" say a new co-host will be revealed on the show Sept. 4.
Disney-ABC Domestic Television said Monday that Kelly Ripa will officially announce her new partner as he or she joins her on stage that morning. By then, Ripa will have welcomed 59 guest co-hosts since Regis Philbin retired from the show last November. The company says the chosen one will come for that large pack.
The day before the big revelation, Ripa will host the show solo for the first time.
Philbin, who created the show, exited at age 80 after presiding more than 28 years alongside several co-hosts.
Gold, silver and crude oil prices are closely related to the movement of the U.S. dollar. After a healthy consolidation, gold began to move up in August 2012. At the same time, deteriorating expectations for crop yields in the American Midwest moved corn and soybean prices to new highs. Higher food prices in late 2012 or early 2013 could have far reaching and geopolitically destabilizing effects likely to weigh on stocks, putting the shine back on precious metals. While billionaires George Soros and John Paulson are buying gold, silver has been in backwardation in recent weeks and silver held in ETFs rose to $16.2 billion according to Bloomberg.
While increasing risk of geopolitical instability, including fear of a U.S. or Israeli war with Iran, account for rising crude oil prices and renewed interest in precious metals, the proverbial elephant in the room remains the U.S. dollar vis-?-vis a crumbling Euro. Precious metals mining stocks hit a low in mid May when the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) shot up +5.5% (4.33 points) from 78.71 on April 27 to 83.04 on May 31. By July 24 the USDX had made a 2-year high of 84.10 as Spanish bond yields soared against a backdrop of continued worries over the European debt crisis. The U.S. dollar then slid -2.25% (1.89 points) to 82.21 on August 2, bouncing back to 82.60 by August 17 with a flat 50-day moving average as precious metals prices and mining stocks rose.
Gold mining stocks, in particular, have suffered due to higher costs related to higher energy prices and lower ore grades, which have compressed cash margins and pushed out returns on capital investments. Gold demand, however, has not abated and higher production costs effectively put a floor under the price of gold.
The key international measure of the U.S. dollar's value is the price of crude oil. Recessions, depressions and economic slowdowns in the U.S., U.K., Europe, China and Japan have softened demand for crude oil, moderating crude oil prices and making the U.S. dollar stronger than it would have been otherwise.
Weaker fuel consumption in the U.S. has been offset by steady global demand and fears of war in the Middle East which could disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.
Although crude oil prices could moderate in the near term if tensions in the Middle East are resolved, it is more likely that the region will become more chaotic due to higher food prices in late 2012 or early 2013. Further, it is far more likely that conflict between the U.S. or Israel and Iran will escalate. In the long term, oil prices will rise due to growing global demand and higher production costs, i.e., for heavy sour crude, shale oil, etc.
Weak U.S. Dollar Fundamentals
The U.S. dollar is fundamentally weaker than it appears to be based on the USDX. Economic growth in the U.S. is extremely weak, despite massive government deficit spending. U.S. federal government debt of roughly $16 trillion, chronic budget deficits of more than $1 trillion per year and unfunded liabilities of more than $62.3 trillion are unsustainable compared to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $15.29 trillion (2011 est.), which includes government deficit spending. On a Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) basis, which accounts for unfunded liabilities, the U.S. federal deficit would be approximately $5 trillion. The U.S. debt to GDP ratio is approximately 100%, which is worse than that of Spain. Further, the U.S. remains embroiled in foreign wars and continues to prosecute a global "War on Terror" at a total combined cost of several trillion dollars to date.
The Federal Reserve has purchased a large portion of U.S. Treasury bonds since 2008, making the demand for U.S. debt appear stronger than it would have otherwise and artificially suppressing treasury bond yields. The Federal Reserve's asset purchases (buying toxic mortgage backed securities, quantitative easing I and II and "operation twist", etc.) represent "money printing". Money printing weakens the currency and causes prices to rise, which punishes savers, workers and consumers in general. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown little change but pre-1980 measures of inflation are as high as 9%.
U.S. domestic price inflation is evident to consumers in terms of food and energy prices, if not in the CPI. The rising cost of living in the U.S. must be contrasted with declining real income and high unemployment. Unemployment in the U.S. indicates a long-term, structural decline in the U.S. job market. Specifically, the civilian population employment ratio has declined for more than a decade.
By all rights, the U.S. dollar should be far weaker, but, to quote Sir Winston Churchill, "the dollar is the worst currency, except for all the alternatives." The USDX is a weighted geometric mean of the U.S. dollar's value compared with the euro (57.6% weight), the Japanese yen (13.6% weight), the British Pound sterling (11.9% weight), the Canadian dollar (9.1% weight), the Swedish krona (4.2% weight) and the Swiss franc (3.6% weight).
Euro (EUR) - The saga of European sovereign debt, the threat of default, austerity versus economic growth, rating cuts, last minute rescues and civil unrest continues unabated. The Euro is, in fact, extremely weak which makes the U.S. dollar appear unnaturally strong. The European Central Bank (ECB) has little choice but to create more Euros to bail out the system.
Yen (JPY) - Japan's recession after a tragic series of economic shocks, i.e., the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster resulted in an inflow of yen back into Japan, increasing demand in the foreign exchange market. The strengthening yen necessitated massive interventions by central banks to weaken the currency in order to stabilize trade.
Pound sterling (GBP) - The U.K. is mired in a deep recession and the Bank of England is engaged in a series of monetary injections that have weakened the pound. There is no visible light at the end of the tunnel.
Canadian dollar (CAD) - Because Canada's economy is intertwined with that of the U.S., the Canadian dollar has remained more or less at parity with the U.S. dollar, although it has historically been the weaker of the two.
Krona (SEK) - Sweden's economy depends on exports and her largest trading partners are in the European Monetary Union, e.g., Germany, Finland, France, Netherlands and Belgium. If the krona appreciates, Swedish exports will fall.
Swiss franc (CHF) - The Swiss National Bank has pegged the Swiss franc to the Euro depriving investors of a traditional safe haven.
The Most Favored Nation
China is struggling to maintain its exports and GDP growth in the face of economic deceleration while battling inflation and the fallout of regional real estate bubbles. The Renminbi (RMB) is closely linked to the U.S. dollar and is managed downward by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) in order to support Chinese exports.
Due to the relative weakness of other currencies (mainly the EUR, GBP and RMB), the U.S. dollar's recent strength is illusory. While a weaker U.S. dollar would aid U.S. exports and reduce the U.S trade deficit, high inflation would also punish savers, workers and consumers in general. A solution to the European sovereign debt crisis, a larger and longer term refinancing plan by the ECB, or signs of economic recovery in the Eurozone, would send the U.S. dollar down sharply. Additionally, strong growth in the BRIC countries or an economic recovery in China would greatly increase upward pressure on global commodity prices. Conversely, a continued slowdown in China, which is more likely, will reduce demand for base metals which is bullish for silver because most silver is produced as a byproduct of base metals mining.
Platinum group metals (PGM) could fall as a function of weaker automobile demand if the Chinese economy continues to slow but Chinese automobile sales are up 22.6% year over year. Weaker automotive demand could be offset by safe haven investment demand for platinum and, in the short term, PGM prices are rising sharply due to ongoing mine labor problems in South Africa.
China, together with the other BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), South Africa and Iran, is slowly but systematically preparing to move away from the U.S. dollar. At some point, the currently gradual movement of global trade away from the U.S. dollar will reach a critical mass and accelerate. The loss of its world reserve currency status is an existential threat to the U.S. dollar. For the time being, however, it is not in the interest of any of the major players, i.e., China, to dump the U.S. dollar. Despite poor economic conditions in the U.S., U.S. consumers are more addicted than ever to cheap imports from China.
China is a major producer and importer of gold and Chinese companies are aggressively buying crude oil and natural resources around the world but, according to the PBoC, Chinese currency reserves grew 1.9% to $3.24 trillion as of June.
The PBoC and other central banks purchased 400 tonnes of gold in the 12 months ended March 31, 2012 compared with 156 tonnes during the same period in 2011, according to the World Gold Council.
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil
Given the weak fundamentals of the U.S. dollar and the fact that its weakness has been masked by a variety of factors, prices could increase too quickly for policy makers, i.e., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, to respond. The U.S. dollar is vulnerable in the face of potential Eurozone stabilization, stronger than expected demand from BRIC countries, or geopolitical disintegration linked to higher food prices. Additionally, further intervention by the Federal Reserve could send the U.S. dollar sharply downward and cause a disruptive spike in global commodity prices. Pressure on the Federal Reserve to engage in further monetary easing, e.g., quantitative easing III (QE3), or an equivalent program, is growing. Gold, silver and related mining shares will rally heading into late 2012 and are likely to break out dramatically as current trends develop.
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Ron Hera, Hera research, LLC 7205 Martin Way East, Suite 72 Olympia, WA 98516 U.S.A. +1 (360) 339-8541 phone +1 (360) 339-8542 fax
Ron Hera, who is the founder of Hera Research, LLC and the principal author of the Hera Research Newsletter, holds a master's degree from Stanford University and is a member of Mensa and of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. A native Californian, Ron is a self described "escapee" from Silicon Valley, California. Originally a serial entrepreneur and private investor in communications software and mobile technology, Ron turned his attention to investing in natural resources, such as precious metals, after the dot-com bubble and stock market crash of 2000.
Ron is a popular speaker whose media appearances include major radio networks and talk shows, such as the Korelin Economics Report. Ron's articles have been featured in prestigious print publications, such as Resource World Magazine, and on major Internet sites including King World News, GoldSeek, Seeking Alpha, Financial Sense, Kitco, MineWeb, the Ludwig von Mises Institute and other professional venues around the world. Ron's articles have been translated into Arabic, German, Vietnamese and other languages.
About Hera Research Hera Research, LLC, provides deeply researched analysis to help investors profit from changing economic and market conditions. Hera Research focuses on relationships between macroeconomics, government, banking, and financial markets in order to identify and analyze investment opportunities with extraordinary upside potential. Hera Research is currently researching mining and metals including precious metals, oil and energy including green energy, agriculture, and other natural resources. The Hera Research Newsletter covers key economic data, trends and analysis including reviews of companies with extraordinary value and upside potential.
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LONDON ? ?Did you see the attendance,? a man calls to another table at the Sussex Arms, a pub in Westminster. As Gary Neville analyzes the round?s results for Sky Sports, the two tables have started their own weekend review, with the most talked about team in Britain stealing the group?s attentions from the Premier League.
?They?re in the fourth tier,? a middle-aged man tells a group of young men from Manchester. Of course, he?s talking about Glasgow Rangers. ?Normally, second and third tier, you get a 200, 300 people. Rangers got 44,000.?
The number was actually larger. Rangers got 49,118 to their Saturday match at Ibrox against East Stirlingshire, the third-highest attended match in Britain (only Arsenal and Newcastle drew more). The weekend?s four other fourth division matches drew a combined 2,402 people, with Elgin City?s 631 the largest non-Rangers crowd.
With such an ardent fanbase, it?s easy to see why Britain remains fascinated with the Glaswegians. The team was a prominent part of Football Focus (BBC?s traditional match day lead in), with Mark Lawrenson and Peter Reid still expressing shock at the circumstances, even though the club?s application to rejoin Scotland?s Premier League was rejected at the beginning of July. Throughout the weekend, most of Britain?s review shows echoed Football Focus?s attentions, Rangers? first home match since relegation clearly a story to be pushed.
Reid, 56, and Lawrenson, 55, are from a time when Rangers were a huge and significant club. As evidenced by their attendance, they remain huge, but embodying the wane Scottish soccer has experienced in recent years, Rangers are hardly significant. Last season, the club failed to play their way into both Champions and Europa League. In a season of turmoil (entering administration in February), Rangers failed to win any of Scotland?s three trophies for the first time since 2007. Combined with the pitfall in the Scottish league?s prestige, Rangers? significance outside Scotland may have never been lower.
All of which makes this weekend?s coverage curious. Among younger soccer fans, you see Rangers? waning significance (just as one example, the man quoting Rangers? attendance numbers at Sussex Arms appeared twice the age of his target audience), but on television, nearly every show treated Rangers as if it were a story fit to put on the same pedestal just below the Premier League?s opening weekend.
And perhaps it was. After all, the club did draw just under 50,000 people to a fourth-tier Scottish league match. That, independent of Rangers? financial problems, is huge news. But if Rangers F.C. wasn?t one of the teams involved, 50,000 fans at a Third Division match would have been treated as final segment curiosity, like Ron Burgundy?s waterskiing squirrel in Anchorman. Instead, it was a top of the show issue that drew panel analysis.
When we see coverage like this ? disproportionate attention given to a story that was more attractive to a preceding generation of fans ? it?s important to know how media works. The people who make the final call on the big stories are usually ones that come from Ried and Lawrenson?s generation. They?ve worked their entire careers to become managing editors and editors in chief, levels they?ve reached because they?ve been successful at their jobs. That success was garnered by their coverage of big stories, and while those editors (in Britain) were coming up, Rangers would have been a big story. Once you?re on top of the pile, you?ve developed habits, routines, instincts, all of which lead to Rangers continuing to get headline coverage even though the person who?ll eventually take your seat is already focusing on other, more relevant stories.
In the United States, we see this with the Kentucky Derby. Do you see today?s major media consumers (the 18-35 demographic) consumed with horse racing? Neither do I. Same goes for golf, tennis, and to a certain extent, baseball. The people who are coming into their money now (the people who advertisers want to cultivate) still love their football and basketball, but they also love Mixed Martial Arts and soccer. If your major sports network doesn?t cover those, in 10 years, it?s not going to be covering anything.
Rangers coverage is a product of that cycle. In media, people spend their entire careers working to get the big chair only to find a cold water irony once they recede into its leather: Their knowledge is already outdated. The first thing most successful people in sports media must do is change.
But old habits die hard, which is why the Kentucky Derby is still huge in the States, baseball is still insecurely touted as the national pastime, and Rangers F.C. got disproportionate media coverage in Britain this weekend.
Which, for three days, has made them the most talked about team in Britain.
Member for Myall Lakes, Stephen Bromhead said he totally supports the NSW Government?s Inquiry into insolvency in the construction industry and is encouraging people who are or have been involved in the industry to make a submission.
The Inquiry was announced by Minister for Finance and Services, Greg Pearce who said the Inquiry will bechaired by barrister Bruce Collins QC, who will examine submissions and report back to the Government.
Hundreds of construction companies failed between 2009 and 2011 with debts in the billions of dollars, affecting up to 24,000 sub-contractors.
?The failure of a business in the construction industry creates a ripple effect that can destroy the financial stability of its sub?contractors and suppliers,? he said.
?The effects on confidence in the construction industry are also of enormous concern, especially at a time when the NSW Government is embarking on a significant infrastructure investment program.
?I have asked Mr Collins to look at why and how insolvency is affecting unsecured creditors and to recommend ways the Government might act to help those affected.
Member for Myall Lakes, Stephen Bromhead said that for too long there have been far too many sub contractors affected by companies not meeting their financial obligations.
?Companies have rattled up debt, gone bankrupt then started building again the following week under a different name,? he said
?The former state Labor government watched this happen and just sat on their collective hands wondering what to do.
?This is the start of the process to protect sub contractors and suppliers from unscrupulous operators in the construction industry and comes at a time when the industry needs to restore confidence.?
The Inquiry is seeking submissions from construction companies, sub-contractors and experts in the industry.
The Inquiry?s terms of reference include looking at how initiatives such as insurance schemes, trust arrangements or mutual funds could help secure subcontractor entitlements.
Submissions can be lodged on the NSW Government?s ?Have Your Say? website, which is www.nsw.gov.au/haveyoursay or by emailing info@iicii.nsw.gov.au.
Written submissions should be sent to the Chairman of the Inquiry into Construction Industry Insolvency, GPO Box 15, Sydney NSW 2001.
For media enquiries please contact Stephen Bromhead
>>last time the campaign centered around women's issues was during the
republican primary
when then
law studentsandra
flug testified in favor of insurance coverage and
sandra
joins me with her reaction. as you well know, there are many people that doubt if there is a so-called war on women and they say it is a figure meant of the imagination comparing it to the search for unicorns or caterpilla caterpillars, i think that was the concern at the time and now you have the situation with akin. does he need to resign? does
mitt romney
need to state a stronger wording of opposition of what happened here?
>>i actually think we need to focus less on exactly what the statement was which is very problematic and look more at the record of representative akin and also at the records of representative
ryan
and former governor romney because this is not an isolated statement. we know that representative akin as well as
ryan
co-sponsored a bill that would have limited which cases of rape qualified for federal abortion funding and that they put forward and voted for bills that would eliminate the right to abortion in all cases. so this is not out of line with their entire record
>>you're referring of course to this controversy bill, hr-3, no taxpayer funding for abortion co-sponsored by the
vice presidential candidateryan
in this and the
original language
,
sandra
, in that act used the term, quote,
forcible rape
. it was later changed to rape. the president touched on this, this notion that there are categories of rape, that rape is rape as he uttered the words just a short time ago. in this legislation co-sponsored by
ryan
at some point in time the language was
forcible rape
as if it needed to be qualified somehow.
>>that's right. it would not have included all cases of incest. it would have exclude the
statutory rape
, and we know that actually the majority of cases of rape are women who are drugged or threatened or coerced. it is a myth that it is a stranger jumping out of the bushes and attacking you. the idea that we have major republican leaders who believe that is the only, quote, legitimate type of rape is a big concern.
>>senator
barbara boxer
released a statement a short time ago in part it says congressman akin's comments about the violent crime of rape are beyond outrageous and another chapter in the war on women that is increasingly dangerous for women's health and lives. obviously i know you agree with the outrage. do you believe this will have a greater impact perhaps even in the
general election
? right now we know that
mitt romney
is trailing
president obama
significantly with female voters but might this also widen the gap come november?
>>i think the last two years of the
house of representatives
should have ab enormous kwakt when every woman and every man in the country who cares about a woman walks into the
voting booth
. this is a
house of representatives
that has an unprecedented record in the types of assaults on women's access to
health care
all the way from
breast cancer screening
in terms of cutting funding for
planned parenthood
to our access to safe and legal abortion and i know that i will certainly remember that when i vote this fall and i hope a lot of other people do as well.
>>sandra
, thank you so much for
making time
with this breaking news. i greatly appreciate
Affiliate referral programs can be both a source of new business leads and incoming revenue if you have an existing customer base that?s ready to try your product or service recommendations. Deciding to participate in affiliate referral programs is not an easy one for most small business owners as there are many pros and cons to consider. It?s important as a business owner to thoroughly evaluate all parts of an affiliate referral program before starting to market the opportunity to businesses and individuals that may want to participate.
The following are key points to keep in mind when deciding whether an affiliate referral program is the right strategy for your business.
Pros:
- Develop a sales force of individuals that are willing to market your products and services
- Increase brand awareness in your industry through actions taken by participating affiliate referral partners
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- Partner with affiliate marketing companies like Commission Junction for online marketing.
- Develop tiered referral commissions to reward top affiliate partners to increase motivation of sales force
- Affiliate referral programs can be started and stopped with fewer issues than formal business partnerships
Cons:
- Loss of control over marketing of products or services
- Potential for affiliate to go off message when selling products or services resulting in an over promise under deliver situation that no business owner enjoys resolving.
- Pay referral commission between 10% ? 50%
- Difficult to gauge the potential success a new partner will have and the impact incurred from an increase in sales, product shipments, customer service requests
If your business sells a physical product, the pros far outweigh the cons and your business will likely gain tremendously from evaluating and implementing this marketing strategy. Service based businesses however; should consider the affiliate model more carefully. Be cautious not to move forward too quickly as the costs associated with referral fees can be high and the program could place an unexpected strain on your existing support team they are not equipped to handle if you?ve not taken the time to set it up properly.
Overall affiliate referral programs can be an excellent method to educate the market and industry at large about your business and the products or services you offer. Most individuals and businesses making money from affiliate programs will have an excellent online marketing presence they can leverage when promoting and selling your offerings.
Affiliate referrals are a good way to get your business engaged with other companies in your industry that have existing customer bases and are marketing to your target customers. The best participants in your business affiliate referral program may ultimately become your strongest channel to new customers which makes this a strategy worth considering.
Christian Fea is CEO of Synertegic, Inc. A Joint Venture Marketing firm. He exemplifies how to profit from Joint Venture relationships by creating profit centers with minimal risk and maximum profitability. To discover more Joint Venture Marketing Strategies join his free report on Joint Venture Marketing.
The head of a British lawmakers' inquiry into the Libor rate-rigging scandal has attacked ex-Barclays boss Bob Diamond for giving "highly selective" evidence, as its report was published Saturday.
"Select committees are entitled to expect candour and frankness from witnesses before them," said Andrew Tyrie, the Conservative MP who chaired the Treasury select committee inquiry which produced the report.
"Mr Diamond's evidence, at times highly selective, fell well short of the standard that Parliament expects, particularly from such an experienced and senior witness."
Lawmakers took evidence from Diamond within two days of his resignation as chief executive of the bank in June over the scandal.
In the report, entitled "Fixing Libor: some preliminary findings", lawmakers called for "urgent improvements" in the way British banks were run and regulated.
"Public trust in banks is at an all time low," Tyrie said. "Urgent improvements, both to the way banks are run, and the way they are regulated, is needed if public and market confidence is to be restored."
These included "higher fines for firms that fail to co-operate with regulators, the need to examine gaps in the criminal law, and a much stronger governance framework at the Bank of England," Tyrie added.
"The sustained rigging of a crucial benchmark rate has done great damage to the UK's reputation," Tyrie said.
The report concluded that "the senior management should have known earlier and acted earlier" on concerns over Libor rate fixing.
"There was something deeply wrong with the culture of Barclays," the report said.
"Such behaviour would only be possible if the management of the bank turned a blind eye to the culture of the trading floor."
Libor, or London Interbank Offered Rate, is a flagship London instrument used as an interest rate benchmark throughout the world.
The rate affect what banks, businesses and individuals pay to borrow money, while the scandal risks engulfing banks across the world.
Barclays was fined ?290 million ($453 million, 369 million euros) in June by British and US regulators after admitting it attempted to manipulate the Libor and the related Euribor rates between 2005 and 2009.
The London-listed bank is looking for a new chief executive after US national Diamond quit the post at the start of July along with chairman Marcus Agius and chief operating officer Jerry del Missier.
Commenting on the report, Tyrie added that all the witnesses in front of the inquiry had acknowledged the wrongdoing of rate manipulation at Barclays.
"Every witness who appeared before the Committee agreed that these actions were disgraceful," Tyrie said.
"They were made possible by a prolonged period of extremely weak internal compliance and board governance at Barclays, as well as a failure of regulatory supervision.
"Such misconduct is a sign of a culture on the trading floor, and higher up, that had gone badly awry."
However, the report said in its conclusion that "Barclays is just one of many international banks under investigation for possible market manipulation.
"It is important that Barclays' serious shortcomings should not be seen in isolation from the possible actions of other banks and we await the results of ongoing investigations."
